I've Had a Hard Time Deciding If I Should Enter the Western States Lottery

The lottery period for the Western States Endurance Run (WSER) started on November 4th.  It ends on November 11th.  For weeks, I’ve been undecided as to whether I should put my name in the lottery.

For those who don’t know, WSER is a 100 mile trail run that starts in Squaw Valley, CA and finishes in Auburn.  It’s the granddaddy of all 100 mile trail runs.  It’s also the most popular, which is why they need to use a lottery.  Every year, thousands of runners attempt to enter the race, but only about 400 will get in.

I got into this race in 2012.  I wasn’t ready.  I wasn’t sufficiently trained to handle the numerous long, steep descents.  I trashed my quads in the first 15 miles.  I made other mistakes, and they all seemed to feed into each other.  After a long, slow downward spiral, I finally dropped out at the Michigan Bluff aid station (55.7 miles).

Some of my friends tried to reassure me by telling me I would finish the next year.  They didn’t understand.  As difficult as it is to finish the race, getting into it is even harder.  After my DNF in 2012, I didn’t have a qualifying race for 2013.  I had to wait another year.  In 2013, I ran a qualifying race.  Then I put my name in the lottery for 2014.  I didn’t get in.

In 2014, I entered another qualifying race.  My plan was to keep qualifying and entering the lottery every year until I got in.  The longer you keep trying, the more tickets you get in the lottery.  With only one ticket, your odds are almost nil.  After five or six years, your chances start to get realistic.  It was a long-term project, but I was determined to earn a second chance to finish this race.

My qualifying race in 2014 was the Bighorn Trail 100.  That race is comparable in difficulty to WSER.  If I could finish it, I would not only qualify, but I would prove to myself that I was ready.  I was in good shape.  I was pacing myself well.  I had the right gear to make it through a nighttime thunderstorm.  About 44 miles into the race, I fell into a creek. The water was ice cold, and I got hypothermic.  I had to power walk for four miles just to get to an aid station where I could drop out.  That DNF was disappointing.  It also left me without a qualifier for 2015.

In 2015, I registered for the Bighorn Trail 100 again.  I wanted to finish this race as badly as I wanted to finish WSER.  About six weeks before the race, I suffered a groin injury.  I wasn’t fully healed in time for the race.  Obsessed with redeeming myself for my previous DNF, I started the race.  After 30 miles, I saw the error of my ways and dropped out.   I didn’t get a buckle, and I didn’t get a qualifier, but I made my leg worse.

By the beginning of 2016, I couldn’t run at all.  I needed to take some time off to heal.  Then I needed to do some physical therapy and get back in shape.  I didn’t run a qualifying race that year, but by the end of the year I was getting back in shape again.

One of my goals this year was to qualify for WSER, so I could once again start building up tickets in the lottery.  Another goal was to finish the Bighorn Trail 100.  This time I also scheduled another qualifying race.  In February, I ran the Rocky Raccoon 100.  I finished Rocky Raccoon, but I never made the trip to Wyoming for the Bighorn Trail 100.  At the same time the race was starting, I was in surgery to repair a herniated disc.

I’ll never know for sure what caused this injury.  It may have been the cumulative wear and tear of years of training and racing.  Alternatively, it may have been the additional strain of doing more hill training and running hillier races.  I first noticed my symptoms during a race that had a few steep descents.  Four weeks earlier, I ran a marathon that descended about 5,000 feet.  I was also doing hill training in preparation for the Bighorn Trail 100.  The impact of running downhill puts much more strain on your muscles, joints and spine.  Finally, the injury may have started with a traumatic event.  In the previous six months, I had fallen six times during races.  In one of those falls, I broke a rib.

For the first few months after surgery, I could only walk.  I took up race-walking to stay in shape, and so I could still do a few of the races I had already entered.  Since then, I’ve done a little bit of running, but I’m still mostly walking.  I expect to eventually return to running marathons, but I don’t know if I’ll even be able to do races like Bighorn or Western States.  Maybe this was a one-time injury, and I’ll eventually be good as new.  On the other hand, maybe I’ll be at high risk of another back injury if I do races that are too rugged.  I just don’t know.  That’s why I’ve been unsure about whether to enter the WSER lottery.

Let me be clear about one thing.  I don’t want to run WSER in 2018.  I know I wouldn’t be ready.  The point of entering the lottery is to start building up tickets again.  Realistically, it’s going to take several years to get in.  If I ever want to do this, I have to start getting tickets in the lottery.  The point of entering this year is to keep my options open for future years.

Before entering the lottery, I asked myself three questions.

The first question is, “What would you do if your name got drawn for 2018?”  The odds of that are pretty slim, but it’s still a possibility.  In all likelihood, I wouldn’t run the race.  In past years, that would mean forfeiting my entry fee and also wasting a coveted bib number, when thousands of other runners were trying to get in.  This year, the race organizers made a change to the entry process.  In addition to drawing enough names to fill the field, they’ll draw additional names to create a waiting list.  If an entrant notifies the race officials that they’re unable to run, somebody from the waiting list will get to run in their place.  If my name gets drawn and I notify them before May 1st that I can’t run, I’ll get a 75% refund.  I also won’t have to feel guilty about denying anyone else a chance to run.

The second question is, “Will you run a qualifying race next year?”  It’s pointless to get a ticket in the lottery next year if I’m not going to keep trying every year.  If you don’t enter, you lose all your tickets.  I don’t expect to be able to run WSER next year, and mostly of the qualifying races are also pretty rugged.  Is there a qualifying race that I think I could finish, even though I’m not currently doing much running?  Could I run it safely, or would I have too much risk of injury?  I’ve identified at least one qualifying race that I could probably finish.  It’s the Vermont 100.  The Vermont 100 is a hilly race, but the course is more dirt road than trail.  It’s challenging, but it’s not technical.  I could probably finish it with minimal injury risk by walking the downhill sections and doing run/walk everywhere else.  It’s even possible that I could power walk the whole thing and finish within the 30 hour time limit.

The last question is, “Do I really think I can finish WSER, or am I just kidding myself?”  I don’t know the answer to that one.  Right now, it’s hard to imagine.  It will probably take a year to get all the way back into running.  During that first year, I’ll stick to road races that are mostly flat.  A year from now, I’ll probably have a better idea.  Until I know for sure, I want to keep my options open.  If I don’t enter the lottery this year, I’m essentially giving up for all time.  I’m not getting any younger, and I’ll only be more prone to injuries as I enter my 60s.  If I’m ever doing to do this race, I needed to do it before I get too much older.  That means I need to start building up tickets in the lottery.

After considering all of this, I still went back or forth several times.  One week, I convinced myself to just give up on WSER.  The next week, I convinced myself to keep my options open.  Until registration opened, I didn’t have to make a final decision.  On Saturday, registration finally opened.  The clock was running, and I only had one week to make up my mind.  Today, I finally made my decision.  I put my name in the lottery.

I hope I don’t get in!